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By Elie Honig

Dear Reader,

Meet the three Kevin McCarthys.

The first Kevin declared from the House floor, just days after the January 6 Capitol attack, that former President Donald Trump “bears responsibility for Wednesday’s attack on Congress by mob rioters.” CNN recently uncovered that KM#1, as we’ll call him, even let slip on a radio show that Trump himself had squarely acknowledged personal culpability for the January 6 attack: “He told me personally that he does have some responsibility.” That, folks, is what we call an “admission” – both from Trump and from McCarthy.

This version of McCarthy, the original, understood the reality of January 6 firsthand. Recall that, while KM#1 was inside the Capitol that day, under siege by pro-Trump rioters, he called the then-President and begged him to call off his frothing supporters. Trump responded that maybe McCarthy just didn’t care enough about the election, and McCarthy snapped back. (Remember, this was the first Kevin McCarthy – the one with a modicum of spine and common sense.) When asked later whether he’d be willing to testify about his dealings with Trump on January 6, the original McCarthy responded without hesitation, “Sure.” 

Sadly, KM#1 only survived a few weeks.

Because, by late January 2021, it was time for the second McCarthy – also known as “Mar-a-Lago Kevin” – to take over. He was only around for a couple days, but how glorious it was. Just weeks after the Capitol insurrection, this iteration of McCarthy flew down to Trump’s post-presidential estate in Florida. Did McCarthy go to Mar-a-Lago to give Trump a piece of his mind, to set the former commander-in-chief straight, to demand accountability? Nope. Mar-a-Lago Kevin went to pay penance for his sin – the sin of speaking truth. 

Eventually, after he was done groveling, Mar-a-Lago Kevin and Trump posed together for a stilted, smiling photograph in a gilded room that looks like what I used to think rich people’s homes looked like, when I was six years old. A hostage-like official statement declared that Trump and McCarthy “discussed many topics, number one of which was taking back the House in 2022. President Trump’s popularity has never been stronger than it is today, and his endorsement means more than perhaps any endorsement at any time.” (Kevin, blink twice if you’re okay.)

Upon his return to Washington DC, Kevin McCarthy the Third emerged. KM#3 has two defining features: he’s ambitious as hell, and he’s full of shit. Ever since his arrival on the scene, KM#3 has completely contradicted reality, facts, and his own prior incarnation as KM#1. (Sigh; don’t we miss the original?) According to KM#3, Trump has no responsibility for January 6. It was Nancy Pelosi’s fault. Outside agitators did it, not Trump supporters. The Committee’s effort to get the full truth is just political opportunism. He doesn’t wanna talk about it and he’s got nothing relevant to say anyway. The Committee recently noted in its letter to McCarthy, with a bit of biting understatement, that “[y]our public statements regarding January 6th have changed markedly since you met with Trump.” Markedly, indeed.  

It looks like KM#3 is here to stay. He might go back down to Florida and spend another throwback weekend as Mar-a-Lago Kevin, but that truth-telling original version is toast. If anything, KM#3 stands to grow even more powerful now. If Republicans take over the House after the 2022 midterms, then McCarthy is the favorite to become Speaker. He let as much slip when he commented after his Mar-a-Lago jaunt that “[t]oday, President Trump committed to helping elect Republicans in the House and Senate in 2022” – a condition precedent to KM#3 ascending to the Speaker’s chair. 

McCarthy will, however, have to cast a wary eye over his shoulder at Trump himself, who apparently has discussed the possibility of becoming Speaker, and has some support among Congressional Republicans. (Oddly, there is nothing specific in the law requiring that the Speaker be an elected member of the House itself.) If this does come to pass, KM#3 might well short-circuit, which could lead us to… KM#4?

The Committee seems to have drawn the obvious conclusion that it needs to hear from McCarthy – or, at least, from the original, clear-eyed version. They’ve invited him to testify, and he has, predictably, declined. Now the Committee must decide whether it will escalate the battle by issuing a subpoena and, potentially, by holding him in contempt if (and, really, when) he continues to stonewall. 

On one level, as I’ve argued before, the Committee ought to play hardball. Don’t let McCarthy just slink away without testifying. Compel him with a subpoena and, if he still refuses, impose meaningful accountability. On the other hand, what are they really going to get out of this guy? Remember, we’re talking about KM#3 now, not KM#1 anymore. Truth is a distant memory for the new McCarthy, and the Committee will likely find far more use in his initial public statements than his post hoc nonsense.

In the meantime, the Committee seems to have focused on a subtle but important point: whatever happened down at Mar-a-Lago could be, and sure looks like, some type of witness tampering or obstruction. We don’t know precisely what Trump and McCarthy talked about in that golden palace of schmaltz. But we can do the math. McCarthy first tells the Trump-damning truth. McCarthy then meets privately with Trump and they discuss their largely-interdependent political futures. And McCarthy finally emerges with a brand new take on reality that casts Trump as a blameless victim. None of this is coincidental.

The Committee will do its work, with or without McCarthy’s testimony. He said what he said, and you can bet the original, candid assessments of KM#1 will be featured prominently in the Committee’s final report. McCarthy, for his part, faces a wider range of potential outcomes. Republicans might not take back the House. Or they might win it but then make Trump their Speaker. Or perhaps everything comes up Kevin and he does become the next Speaker. 

Either way, McCarthy should know that we all know who he really is – or, at least, who he once was.

Stay Informed, 

Elie