Preet Bharara:

From CAFE and the Vox Media Podcast Network, this is Stay Tuned. I’m Preet Bharara. President Biden’s historic decision not to seek reelection and to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris, has sent shockwaves through the political landscape. In this emergency episode, we’ll dive into the implications of this announcement and what happens next. As Democrats coalesce around Harris, excitement is building, but uncertainty remains.

Joining me to discuss the latest news in this unprecedented election season, is Alex Thompson. He’s a national political correspondent for Axios, and the author of a forthcoming book about Joe Biden. Alex, welcome to the show.

Alex Thompson:

Good to be here. I’m honored to be on the emergency pod.

Preet Bharara:

Emergency pod. We’ve had more than a couple of those lately because the news cycle is what it is. So we’re recording this on Monday morning, July 22nd. I want to mostly look forward in this conversation, but I do need to ask you. Given all the indications we got from Joe Biden, from his closest advisors about his persistence in wanting to run for president a second time, kind of suddenly on Sunday afternoon, he changed his mind. Do you have any insight as to what finally happened there?

Alex Thompson:

Yeah, people close to Joe Biden say that he doesn’t really decide, he evolves. He takes a long time to get to a decision, and that’s really what we’ve been witnessing, not just over the last week, especially once he got COVID, but really, since the debate, is that this was him coming to terms with his political fate. And essentially, I think obviously lots of Democrats hailed him for giving up power, essentially, and sort of gracefully bowing out. But let’s also remember here, this is not a man that wanted to get out of this race. This is a man who basically faced formidable opposition in the form of Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi, who made it very clear that she wanted him to be out of the race and also made it clear that she was going to make this incredibly painful, that every single day you were probably going to see more democratic lawmakers come out and suggest and call for him to get out of the race.

And eventually what happened is Joe Biden went to Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, where he has a home. Senior staff in the form of Steve Ricchetti and Mike Donilon, who have been with him for a long time, but have also been criticized by many Democrats and people in the White House for not being people that are willing to give the president bad news, not out of some form of manipulation, but actually because they have great affection for him. And they finally went and said that the path, if there even is one anymore, is exceedingly narrow, based on the campaign’s internal data. And you saw Biden basically being faced with the party… There’s an old catechism in political science, the party decides. And a lot of the power brokers have been defanged in recent decades, but in this case, this was an example, the party decided that they did not want Joe Biden as a nominee anymore, and that Joe Biden didn’t see a path forward, and that is how he eventually came to that decision.

Preet Bharara:

So I will never forget where I was when I got the news. I was scrolling on Twitter on an airplane at 35,000 feet with kind of shoddy internet service. The WiFi was going in and out and I saw a Tweet that purported to show a letter from Joe Biden, but I couldn’t confirm it with any other Tweets because it was just the one. So for a few minutes I wasn’t sure if it was a hoax or it was real. Then I got some service back and I read the letter quickly and it didn’t say anything about Kamala Harris, which I thought was quite significant. And further to what some people’s speculation had been, maybe he was just going to stay out of it and let the party figure it out on his own. And then a few minutes later, his account sent out a separate Tweet in which he did fully endorse Kamala Harris. Was it a foregone conclusion in retrospect, that Biden was going to do that?

Alex Thompson:

It’s complicated. So I can tell you that part of the reason Biden hesitated is because he and his senior team had concerns about whether or not Kamala Harris could take on Donald Trump. Some of this I think is just by virtue of that they’re very different people from very different generations. I don’t, in some ways they don’t really appreciate each other’s virtues, I think, or at least I think sometimes he underrated her. But it was not a foregone conclusion, especially given the fact that Nancy Pelosi had made it known that she wanted a more open process. And that’s because her first run for the presidency ended before the Iowa caucuses and she has had an uneven at times Vice Presidency, in which she’s had high staff turnover, and to other people in the administration has seemed to be risk averse to the point of avoiding responsibility at times. And so there was significant concern from Joe Biden’s team.

I think one thing I can tell you that did really influence his decision here though, was Joe Biden’s sort of I guess, a code of loyalty here. And first, I think it validates, to not endorse her begs the question of, why’d you pick her? But also, I think Joe Biden long felt that he was more loyal to Barack Obama than Barack Obama was to him, and I think he sees it as a point of how he goes through the world, that despite his concerns he was going to be loyal to the person he picked.

Preet Bharara:

Is there any actual polling that suggests that there’s some other person who was in a materially better position against Trump than Kamala Harris? Because I haven’t seen any.

Alex Thompson:

No, and part of the problem is, it’s funny because the Biden campaign was basically making this argument the last three weeks, including, I remember they actually sent out a fundraising email-

Preet Bharara:

Oh, about himself?

Alex Thompson:

Yes, and basically saying that there wasn’t significant polling showing anyone doing better, and if there was, that it’s sort of a hypothetical, that eventually polling doesn’t get real until someone is actually in the arena. So the short answer to your question is, no, there is no polling showing that anyone is significantly more formidable than Vice President Harris.

Preet Bharara:

Right, and in that circumstance, it would’ve been odd for Biden to do anything other than what he did, right? Because he picked Kamala Harris, he made that his most important first decision. That meant that he believed that she was ready on day one to be president if something should happen to him. And in the absence of polling to the contrary in a material way, how could he have not endorsed in a full-throated manner, Kamala Harris, right?

Alex Thompson:

Yeah, if you were to do otherwise, it would suggest that he doesn’t necessarily believe that she was ready to be president, which again, that’s, why’d you pick her then?

Preet Bharara:

How are you gauging the reaction? Because from where I sit and once I got home from the airport, watched a lot of TV and read a lot of articles, there seems to be a groundswell of support beyond what some people might’ve predicted, and endorsement after endorsement after endorsement, including from some would-be rivals for the presidency. And also by the way, record amounts of cash coming in. At last count, I think before I went to bed, it was at $50 million or more, one of the biggest days for cash for ActBlue in the history of the site. How do you gauge the reaction?

Alex Thompson:

Absolutely, and beyond just the money that you noted, just anecdotally, people that were certainly not fans of Kamala Harris during her campaign for president, also that weren’t necessarily fans of her vice presidency, are becoming full-on Kamala-Stans. I think you are seeing, and some of this is by circumstance and by the circumstance of the moment, is that the party is freaked out that Donald Trump is going to win. And they were freaked out that they were going to have a candidate who couldn’t really articulate a case, that people had significant concerns about his age, and now you have a candidate who can, as she would put it, prosecute the case. And I think to your point, I think your point is spot on, that there has been an extraordinary consolidation behind her. I mean, we’re not even 24 hours since the letter, and you basically had almost every single potential challenger to her, if there was going to be more of a primary, already endorse her.

Preet Bharara:

Yeah, I’m not going to say I predicted this, but I did think there was going to be a bit more consolidation and support and cohesion than a lot of people thought, just because, the people I’ve been talking to, and I mean no disrespect to Joe Biden we should say, as a lot of people have said that this was a heroic and selfless action. And I do think it means that he uniquely among people in his position, put the country before himself, and the country before his other personal interests. But a lot of Democrats were in a complete spiral, downward spiral, and malaise, and doom, and a change like this, I think has energized them far beyond what a lot of pundits might have expected.

Alex Thompson:

I completely agree, and some of this also is the Trump effect. The greatest mobilizer of Democrats in American history has been Donald Trump, and he has been in some ways the greatest fundraiser for Democrats in history, and Kamala Harris is certainly being the beneficiary of that right at this moment. And I think you’ve seen even once Joe Biden became the nominee, for example, the split between the progressives and the centrists, also was healed at least temporarily because Donald Trump also unites Democrats. And I think that’s also what’s happening here, and it’ll be really interesting to see Vice President Harris and her first public remarks, her first interviews. But yeah, you’re spot on that, and I didn’t predict this, but I think that’s exactly what we are seeing right now.

Preet Bharara:

I think even though it’s been reported upon a lot, the depths of despair among Democrats was I think even understated in the press, and a lot of people were keeping that despair to themselves and now they see an opening. Is there any evidence to suggest in your reporting that the Trump campaign is a lot more worried today than they were last Friday?

Alex Thompson:

Yeah, I think because anytime you… The Trump campaign was totally confident that they could beat Joe Biden, to the point of arrogance, and now there’s uncertainty, and I think there was a reluctance to accept that anyone would ever relinquish power in the way that Joe Biden did. I mean, the fact is that he stepped away and I think the Trump campaign was surprised about that. And you’re already seeing in their first ads, basically what they’re just trying to do is make Vice President Harris own the Biden agenda. Essentially they’re still going after Harris by going after Biden.

Preet Bharara:

Yeah, I mean it’s hard to disassociate, right? This is always a problem for someone who has served as vice president to someone else when they run for the presidency in their own right. They want to take the credit for the good things and disassociate themselves from the bad things, but that’s hard to do. And will she be able to thread that needle?

Alex Thompson:

We don’t know yet because, and this is the key question about how she goes forward. Once she starts, I mean, the thing that is making some Democrats nervous and why I think some are still holding back, is they want to see how she does in this first week. What does she do when she gets a tough interview? She is a pretty risk averse politician, and she hasn’t done a really tough interview in a few months. I think some Democrats are waiting to see her, how she handles that question. How does she thread those needles, those tough questions? What happens when she’s asked about the border and immigration and inflation?

Preet Bharara:

Yeah, look, people have been up to yesterday, concerned about Kamala Harris’s ratings as vice president, fairly low approval rating for recent decades for a vice president. But it’s always been my view that that’s based on low information and that now the entire world, the entire country at least, has their eyes upon her. Democrats are energized, they want to believe she could do it, they want to believe that she’s a star. And so what happens, as you have said, I think it’s totally spot on, what happens in the immediate few days following her announcement means much more than whatever people’s perceptions of her have been before, because I don’t think they’re deeply felt. Is that fair?

Alex Thompson:

Yes, and the other thing is what you said is right, they want to believe. I have people that are like diehard Bernie Bros, Bernie Sanders people, and they’re getting excited and sending memes, the coconut memes and everything else. But that can quickly go away if she stumbles.

Preet Bharara:

Are you going to explain to our audience what I as a 55-year-old father had to look up for myself? Are you going to explain Brat Summer, Alex?

Alex Thompson:

Honestly, I don’t know. All I know is the coconuts meme, I support Kamala Harris. But I have been so deep in Biden world that I still have not taken the time to actually understand the origins of the coconut.

Preet Bharara:

Okay, or Brat, but we won’t get into that because it’s a family show. I’ve been thinking about the themes that she will press. Obviously, she is incredibly well suited to talk about reproductive rights and abortion and the overturning of Roe, but I also think that she has a strength, and tell me if you think people are saying this or believe this. She has an incredible strength of biography and expertise that I think she left a bit behind, when she was running at least temporarily in the Democratic primary in 2020. And that is the main achievement of her career, which is to have been a law and order, public safety caring, former prosecutor, both as a DA and as an attorney general, which wasn’t the most exciting background to have when you’re running in a primary where people on the left vote the most, particularly in 2020 and everything that was going on there. But in a general election, that background is both a sword and a shield. Is that fair?

Alex Thompson:

Yes, and the question is, does she use it as such? Because she has been nervous about the backlash from parts of the progressive community. The quote, “Kamala is a cop” meme that you were referencing from the 2020 campaign. That I think wounded her and made her self-conscious in some ways, that made her not… I understand that it was a primary, but I also think she hasn’t really embraced it during her vice presidency either. And I think you’re right, that it could be a great strength in this moment, but does she feel comfortable enough to take some of the criticism that will come her way from parts of the left? In the same way Joe Biden did, when he came out and said he was against defunding the police during the 2020 campaign. That was a moment right after George Floyd was killed and he took a lot of heat from the left, and is she willing to do the same? We don’t know yet.

Preet Bharara:

Well, we also come a long way since 2020, and pendulums swing. At least that’s what the physicists tell me. So I think we’re in a different mode. Do you think she will have a good answer on the border question?

Alex Thompson:

I mean, she hasn’t yet. So I mean, maybe. The thing, the experience with the border really caused a lot of internal frustration inside the administration, because yes, there was all this thing of, is she in charge of the border or just the Northern Triangle and Mexico and blah, blah, blah? But the thing that frustrated people is that as the migration crisis grew global in scale, some of this was uncontrollable. There’s a global migration crisis throughout the world, and as that grew, she and her office told everyone in the administration, “No, our responsibilities stop and start at the Northern Triangle and we don’t want to have anything to do with anything else.” And people felt that running away from responsibility did not, it could have been a moment, but instead, they felt that she ran from it. And it will be interesting to see, is she still defensive about it like she was in 2021, or does she have a much more proactive view now that she’s the nominee? I mean, maybe she felt nervous because she wanted to make sure to defend the president, now she can say whatever she really wants.

Preet Bharara:

I want to get into the Veepstakes, in a moment that’s very, very important and it’s on everyone’s minds. But before we do that, we at the beginning of the conversation talked about how there are some people who did not endorse Kamala Harris for this position yet, although many, many, many people have. And one notable person absent from the list of endorsers is former President Barack Obama. What’s going on there?

Alex Thompson:

Yeah, I mean, I think Barack Obama wants to come in and basically be the guy that comes in at the very end and stamps the approval. Barack Obama did not get involved in a public sense in 2016 primaries or 2020 primaries. He’s often been behind the scenes and he likes to come in and be at the very end and say, “This is our nominee.” And that, he’s doing the exact same thing here. This is an example of past is prologue, that’s how he likes to do these things.

Preet Bharara:

All right, let’s talk about vice presidents. Kamala Harris has a momentous decision to make, who she runs with. Speaking of memes, we’ve talked about memes a couple of times in this interview already. I’ve seen one meme pop up again and again on social media, and that is pictures of signs in wine stores where there’s the sign in the white wine section, exciting whites, interesting whites, as a way of describing the nature and identity of the person that Kamala Harris will likely pick. What’s the thinking over there, you think?

Alex Thompson:

I mean, it’s the thinking that this is still a country that’s maybe a little bit racist, I guess, where it’s like, you can’t have a ticket without at least one white person on it. Otherwise the country would reject you. And it’s sort of like a, I think we, it’s one of those things that I guess we just all accept as reality, but if you actually just step back and think about it, it does seem like a very crude calculus. That you have to have one white person on a ticket in order to be electable in this country now, but that is what you’re seeing. I mean, you are basically seeing every boring white man in America that’s a lawmaker being floated for vice president right now, so.

Preet Bharara:

But is that fair? I mean, I said the thing about the memes halfway jokingly, but it seems to me that the analysis has to be, it’s going to be a close election, the swing states are all important. Who’s a popular Democrat who has achieved statewide office in an important swing state? One of those is Pennsylvania, and there’s a fairly popular governor, Josh Shapiro. Yeah, maybe he’s a boring white guy, but he’s also the governor of a swing state and has outperformed national Democrats there. Then you have Arizona, swing state, important one, Senator Mark Kelly, very popular there as well. Outruns, I think national Democrats, and there are others like that as well. Isn’t that the analysis, and it just happens to be the case, that those potential candidates who can shore up the ticket in swing states are white men?

Alex Thompson:

I think there’s something to be said, and I wasn’t meaning to besmirch, like Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear, Governor Cooper down in North Carolina, who also served as AG at the same time Kamala Harris does, and they actually have a very close personal relationship. They all have extraordinary skills and do bring stuff to the ticket.

At the same time, there are other lawmakers that aren’t being floated that would also bring stuff to the ticket, but I agree that what Kamala Harris is probably going to do based on what we’ve seen in the polling, she’s always outperformed Biden with younger voters and with voters of color. So that would give her an advantage in the Sunbelt. So we’re talking about Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, where Trump, his lead has been greater than his lead has been in the Blue Wall states. So we’re talking Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. And so if you have someone like Mark Kelly, does he help you in the Sunbelt and the Midwest, or… Those are some of the calculations, or do you go all-in on North Carolina? I can tell you the Biden campaign really thought that North Carolina was going to be what Georgia ended up being in 2020, and they’re still very bullish on North Carolina now. That’s when someone like Cooper would come in handy. And there’s-

Preet Bharara:

Obama won North Carolina in ’08, did he not?

Alex Thompson:

Yeah. Yes, yes he did. I am pretty sure he came very close in ’12.

Preet Bharara:

Right, that’s interesting, but Kentucky is not in play at all, so why Andy Beshear?

Alex Thompson:

I think because you see, it’s not about winning Kentucky, it’s about a messenger that has been proven to win in states that are more conservative and southern.

Preet Bharara:

So, I’ll throw out something that diehard progressive Democrats will scream at me about. Why not Joe Manchin?

Alex Thompson:

That’s interesting. I mean, you’re not going to win West Virginia, but to your point, he is a messenger.

Preet Bharara:

It sounds like it’s the same idea as Andy Beshear. The problem is that Manchin has a lot of people in the Democratic Party who think he’s not a team player and he de-registered from the Democratic Party, did he not?

Alex Thompson:

Yes, he’s an independent right now, and he also just floated challenging Kamala Harris. But yes, I think the same reasoning would apply. I’ll also tell you, I don’t think this is the conventional view. There is an interesting line of thought about, why not pick another woman, like Gretchen Whitmer? You have the Trump campaign-

Preet Bharara:

Yeah, double-down.

Alex Thompson:

… basically doubling down on testosterone and macho, Hulk Hogan, UFC, RNC. Why not do the same and double-down and make this a boys versus girls election?

Preet Bharara:

Well that worked, the only time I can remember in my lifetime and that the prevailing thought and strategy that you balance a ticket, right? Kennedy and Johnson, in 1992, there was a young charismatic governor from Arkansas named Bill Clinton, and he picked a young charismatic senator also from the south, and it worked out well for them.

Alex Thompson:

Yeah, and honestly, sort of what Trump just did with J.D. Vance too, is he the doubled down on MAGA.

Preet Bharara:

Except for the age, except for the age. I mean, I think this is only a mild exaggeration. I think the combined age of Clinton and Gore back in 1992 was just tad older than Joe Biden is now.

Alex Thompson:

That’s got to be true.

Preet Bharara:

Yeah, because they’re both in their 40s.

Alex Thompson:

Because they were both in their mid-40s or early 40s. and I mean, Bill Clinton is still younger than Joe Biden.

Preet Bharara:

Yeah, and he always will be. That’s how time works.

Alex Thompson:

That’s true.

Preet Bharara:

I had to science that, and that’s how I know that. So if it really is Kamala Harris versus Trump, how does the RFK run interfere with that or change now that Biden is out? Do you have any sense of that?

Alex Thompson:

We still really don’t know. I mean, the thing about the RFK is he’s taking from both sides, and he’s taking from the disaffected vaccine skeptics on the Trump’s side, and he’s taking from Democratic some environmentalists, some crunchy people, and then people that like the Kennedy name. So, what both sides are going to… I don’t think it’s going to change significantly from Kamala to Joe Biden. I think both sides are basically just trying to make sure that RFK Jr. is taking a little bit more from the other side than from their side.

Preet Bharara:

Are you hearing any Democrats in good faith mumbling behind the scenes that it was a mistake and an error and a problem that Joe Biden got out? Because you heard a lot of that from people on the internets, and I wonder if there’s that or people have come around?

Alex Thompson:

I think people, not everyone has come around. I think they’re going to make, I think they will eventually and just hope for the best. I do think on the congressional side, if you’re a member of Congress running for re-election, most of them are breathing a sigh of relief, at least right now, because they were seeing their internals just plummet. But if your main goal is to beat Donald Trump, I think there is definitely anxiety about replacing him with someone who has not taken on Donald Trump. What does Kamala Harris do on a debate stage with Donald Trump? How does she fend him on? I think Biden’s former Chief of Staff articulated in a passive, not even that passive aggressive Tweet yesterday, where he said now that the Democratic Party basically forced out the only person that’s beat Donald Trump before, we’re going to rally behind Kamala Harris. So, there is definitely some anxiety if that’s your main goal.

Preet Bharara:

You mentioned a debate. I want to end on the debate question. Isn’t it a sign of weakness on Trump’s part that he has put out a social media post suggesting that he may back out of the debate because there was a bait and switch between Biden and Kamala Harris? Doesn’t that look incredibly weak and afraid?

Alex Thompson:

Yes, it does, but it could also, I think it also potentially signals that he feels confident, that they feel confident enough in their lead that it’s worth getting mocked over not debating, than agreeing to potentially debate. But I agree, it definitely comes across as weak.

Preet Bharara:

Will Democrats talk about age every hour on the hour, now that the age question is squarely in the Trump camp.

Alex Thompson:

I don’t think so. I think in part because they’re talking about it right now as sort of a hypocrisy thing or what’s good for the goose, good for the gander. I think they’re getting at all of their angst about all of the Biden age coverage, but the fact is that age was a vulnerability for Trump, but voters just don’t believe it’s nearly as much of an issue with Donald Trump, as they did with Biden, and it just doesn’t appear that it’s the same sort of political liability. I think you’re going to see, after getting their feelings out, you’re going to see them focus a lot more on what a second Trump term would look like, than the fact that he’s old.

Preet Bharara:

Final question before I let you go on. On what day are we going to find out the VP pick?

Alex Thompson:

So-

Preet Bharara:

I was told you have great sources, Alex.

Alex Thompson:

Yeah. Well, the problem is none of the sources know anything right now.

Preet Bharara:

Yeah, that sounds fair.

Alex Thompson:

They’re scrambling. I would imagine it’s going to be assuming, well, let’s assume that that Kamala Harris consolidates, like consolidates the field, consolidates the nomination, becomes the presumptive nominee within the week. I think you will see a VP pick probably the very, weekend before the convention, I think, and part because part of the reason they picked this state of the convention, one of the many reasons, was because they were trying to avoid overlapping with all the Olympics coverage. And I think that will probably still stand, they don’t want the VP pick to get lost in some of, all of that chaos.

Preet Bharara:

Alex Thompson, thanks so much for joining us, especially on incredibly short notice. Really appreciate it.

Alex Thompson:

Thanks so much for having me, this was fun.

Preet Bharara:

For more analysis of legal and political issues making the headlines, become a member of the CAFE Insider. Members get access to exclusive content, including the weekly podcast I host with former U.S. Attorney, Joyce Vance. Head to cafe.com/insider to sign up for a trial. That’s cafe.com/insider.

If you like what we do, rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen, every positive review helps new listeners find the show. Send me your questions about news, politics, and justice. Tweet them to me @PreetBharara with the hashtag #AskPreet. You can also now reach me on Threads, or you can call and leave me a message at 669-247-7338. That’s 669-24-PREET, or you can send an email to letters@cafe.com.

Stay Tuned is presented by CAFE and the Vox Media Podcast Network. The Executive Producer is Tamara Sepper. The Technical Director is David Tatasciore. The Deputy Editor is Celine Rohr. The Editorial Producer is Noa Azulai. The Associate Producer is Claudia Hernández, and the CAFE Team is Matthew Billy, Nat Weiner, and Jake Kaplan. Our music is by Andrew Dost. I’m your host, Preet Bharara. Stay Tuned.