Published April 14, 2021

Elie Honig: 

From CAFE, this is Third Degree, I’m Elie Honig. Last week I promised myself that I’d stay away from the Matt Gaetz story for a bit so much had happened so fast. And I figured there’s still so much that’s unknown let’s wait until something new happens, let’s wait until something significant happens, or something telling happens. Well, it happened. A lot of things have happened really quickly. Now, of course, there’s still plenty that we don’t know, but we’ve gotten a couple really important indicators recently. And we now have a much clearer sense of where things stand for Matt Gaetz and the bottom line prognosis, it’s really not looking good. Know, this, if Matt Gaetz gets charged by DOJ, and that’s a really big if, as we’ll discuss though, it’s now trending a bit more towards when, and if he gets convicted another unknown, know this, he’s not going to get a slap on the wrist.

The crimes Matt Gaetz is being investigated for are deadly serious among the most unforgiving on the federal books. We’re talking about alleged sex trafficking of a minor. If that crime is proved, there is a 10 year mandatory minimum under federal law. And there’s no way for a judge to sentence to less than that. There’s also no parole in the federal system. You have to do 85% of your time. Every federal inmate can get 15% off for good time, but we’re talking about very, very serious charges and time here. And that’s just one of the potential charges that are in play. Now, Gaetz has denied all this furiously, strenuously, angrily, and he is absolutely entitled to the presumption of innocence. It is still early, but the situation’s evolving or devolving quickly. Even the past few days, we’ve learned new information that sheds more light. So let’s break it down.

First of all, Joel Greenberg, who is this guy? On the most basic level, he’s Matt Gaetz’s buddy, bro, party hound, manga pal. You’ve seen photos of them hanging out at bars and parties and with Roger Stone. So Joel Greenberg somehow got himself elected tax assessor near Orlando down in Florida. And then he basically ran wild spending crazily on personal luxuries, authorizing his people to carry guns. Again, this is the tax assessor trying to make traffic stops, trying to use his position to get out of trouble with the cops, living it up on the public dime. Well, Joel Greenberg’s glory days did not last long. He’s now charged in a federal case in Florida with 33 counts, 33 federal crimes. The most serious is trafficking or transporting a minor across state lines for sex. Like I said, that is a 10 year mandatory minimum. He’s also charged with fraud, bribery, campaign finance.

This is what, at the Southern district of New York, we would have called, a one man crime wave. That was a favorite line on certain openings, he certainly fits the bill. By all indications, Joel Greenberg is now cooperating with the justice department against Matt Gaetz and maybe others as well. He reportedly has reached an agreement to plead guilty, that in itself can, can signal potential cooperation. I got to say in this case, I really doubt prosecutors would let him plead guilty without cooperation. You don’t cut an accused sex trafficker of children a break without getting something in return. Something very valuable. And Greenberg’s lawyer. Let’s just say he doesn’t have the best poker face.

I’m sure Matt Gaetz is not feeling very comfortable today.

Now you may be wondering how on earth can prosecutors cooperate this guy, Joel Greenberg, he’s vile. He’s grotesque. He’s about to admit to horrific crimes. The reality is, this is how it works. Cooperators are by nature, unsavory or worse. I’ve built many a case based on information from career criminals, mobsters, killers even, and Joel Greenberg is no killer. However, cooperating a murderer is one thing, but Greenberg, he’s something else, maybe even worse as cooperators go because he’s got two things that I always considered the absolute worst in a cooperator.

Murderers, we know how to put them on his witnesses, they admit the murder, they are backed up by other evidence and they tell you everything they know. But here’s the two big problems with Joel Greenberg, one he’s a fraudster he’s lied, cheated, stolen. So prosecutors will have to convince a jury that he’s now coming clean, fraudster that he once was. It’s not as tough as it actually sounds because the argument is well, it’s obviously now in his self-interest to tell the truth under his plea agreement.

The second big problem with Joel Greenberg is when he pleads guilty, he will become a child sex offender. Now that’s a tough one. I never flipped somebody with that kind of background. Though a few child sex offenders, who I prosecuted did offer to cooperate for me that was a no thanks. I don’t mean that as if I’m high and mighty, as I said, I’ve gladly cooperated murders, but that’s too much, and it’s a tough sell to a jury. But ultimately the key with all these cooperators, as we tell juries is not whether they like cooperators. They shouldn’t. We tell juries, you shouldn’t like him. It’s not about that. It’s about whether you believe him. And that comes down to corroboration. Is this person backed up by other independent evidence?

Which brings me to the second new development, the Venmo transactions. Here’s what we know, federal prosecutors reportedly have documentation of an interesting series of transactions between Matt Gaetz and Joel Greenberg. The records show Matt Gaetz sent Greenberg $900 by Venmo. Now this is in May of 2018. The transactions happen late at night, there were two of them. The first one Gaetz wrote in the memo, “Test.” And the second one Matt Gaetz wrote in the memo, “Hit up blank.” Blank is the name of a woman who has been redacted.

And the next morning, what does Joel Greenberg do? He Venmo’s $900, the exact same amount, to three young women, not underage reportedly. The youngest was about 18 and a half at the time. And he labels those payments, “Tuition.” Not sure about that. Is there more? Are there more financial records? We don’t know, but I’ll tell you, I’d be surprised if this is all the feds had, just this one transaction for $900.

And if they have Greenberg cooperating, lookout. When you sit with a cooperator, this is what you do. You say, “Tell me every transaction. Were there others like this on Venmo? Where? When? How do I get them? Were there payments by PayPal? By check? By cash? Did you ever text with him? Did you ever DM with him?” Cooperators will give you everything along those lines. That’s why it’s so dangerous for Matt Gaetz. If Joel Greenberg is cooperating, that’s the value of cooperators. They can guide you. They can help you find other evidence, other documents, which in turn bolsters the cooperators credibility. So it’s a circular, reinforcing process. And as horrible as Greenberg may be as a person, and as bad as his conduct is, it’s hard to knock him down as a witness. If he’s backed up by cold, hard proof by Venmo records and texts and emails and whatever else he can point the feds to.

Third, Gaetz has now lawyered up in a big way. He has hired Marc Mukasey and Isabelle Kirshner. Marc Mukasey is a friend of mine. He was my chief at the Southern district of New York. My second year in the office, he was my narcotics chief. He is tough. He is hard driving. He is aggressive. I remember one incident when I was brand new in the unit, fairly new in the office. And Marc stopped by my office and said, “Hey, how you doing?” I said, “Good, good.” He said, “You kicking ass?” I said, “I think so.” And he said, “Good, keep kicking ass.” It was just a little interaction, but I always remembered it. And I think that tells you a little bit about Marc Mukasey. He knows the criminal system. He’s well-respected. He is I’m sure not cheap.

Isabelle Kirshner also is an outstanding defense lawyer, very well respected in New York City where she practices. All this tells me that despite his outer showing of bravado, Gaetz is taking this very, very seriously and he should, by the way. He’s fully entitled to hire whoever he cares to hire, to defend him. I’m not saying that hiring Marc Mukasey is a sign of guilt. It’s a sign that Gaetz understands how deadly serious this investigation is, and how high the stakes are for him. You don’t hire Marc Mukasey to go into DOJ and work out a quiet, quick, guilty plea. You hire Marc if you’re preparing for battle.

And I got to say, I feel a bit for Marc Mukasey here, because I’m sure, and Marc’s a very good lawyer. And I’m sure that his very first piece of advice to Matt Gaetz, as any lawyer would advise anybody in Gaetz, his shoes was, shut the hell up. Shut up. Of course, by this point, Matt Gaetz had already gone on Tucker Carlson, before hiring Marc and yapped about the case. And he has since spoken at and no, I’m not making this up a, “Women for America first event.”

I’m built for the battle and I’m not going anywhere. The smears against me range from distortions of my personal life to wild and I mean wild conspiracy theories.

He was wildly cheered as he remained gleefully defiant of DOJ and all of his purported detractors. Meanwhile, Congress plans to open an ethics investigation into Gaetz. Apparently they’ll put it on hold pending DOJ’s investigation. That’s a smart move. The last thing you need at DOJ is Congress investigating, talking to the same people you’re trying to talk to. This much is clear, Gaetz isn’t going anywhere. He’s not leaving Congress unless and until his own party forces him out. That likely won’t happen unless, and until he’s indicted, if that comes to pass, the Republicans are tiptoeing around him. Only one so far, Adam Kinzinger has called for Gaetz to resign. One. One Republican in Congress. And for now Gaetz remains defiant and the Republicans remain compliant.

And this much also is becoming clear, even if an indictment does come down, Gaetz won’t give an inch. If he’s indicted, I fully expect the trial, even though a very small number of cases actually goes to trial. Gaetz has every right to fight this case. God bless him. And if he does fight it all the way to trial and loses, that’s when the house collapses on you in terms of sentencing. Thus far, Gaetz has shown no signs of accepting anything that he allegedly has done. He almost seems to relish the fight that he’s in for. And if I know DOJ, they’re not phased at all by his bluster, a lot remains to be seen. The trend for Matt Gaetz this past week though has been decidedly negative. Thanks for tuning in everybody. Keep following us here on Third Degree, and if you have questions, comments, or thoughts, please send them to us at letters@cafe.com.

Third degree is presented by CAFE studios. Your host is Elie Honig. The executive producer is Tamara Sepper. The senior producer is Adam Waller. The technical director is David Tatsciore. The audio and music producer is Nat Wiener. And the CAFE team is Matthew Billy, David Kurlander, Sam Ozer-Stanton, Noa Azulai, Jake Kaplan, Geoff Eisenman, Chris Boylan, Sean Walsh, and Margot Maley.